Arizona Forest

Restoration Products Inc.

Sustainability of Appropriately Sized Utilization

The original sustainability analysis published by AZFRP in 2006 has been confirmed by the collaborative Analysis of Small Diameter Wood Supply in Northern Arizona.

Probably the most critical aspect of any utilization plan, beside insuring its ecological soundness, is to insure that it is sustainable over the long term, and that it will allow the natural resource to renew itself without being depleted.

The sustainability analysis is a scientific process based on data. In the case of Arizona Forest Restoration Products it involves two types of data:

• the backlog of forest that has accumulated and that causes the risk of catastrophic wildfires;

• the annual growth that occurs every year.

Five steps must be followed:

1. making data-supported assumptions needed for the establishment of the relevance of the data;

2. identifying the existing backlog;

3. identifying the annual growth;

4. compounding the existing backlog with the annual growth;

5. applying the utilization;

6. reading objectively the data to see if sustainability is insured.

Step #1: Making data-supported assumptions needed for the establishment of the relevance of the data

In the case of Arizona Forest Restoration Products, two data-supported assumptions must be made:

1. What is the percentage of the forest that needs restorative thinning?

2. What is the volume of wood harvested during restorative thinning?

Percentage of the forest that needs restorative thinning

 

Not all the ponderosa pine forest requires thinning. Some areas have burned, some small areas have already been thinned, some areas have lower tree densities due to natural factors such as soil, exposure, altitude, etc. In consequence, the first data-supported assumption that must be made is what percentage of the acreage of the forest requires thinning.

Regrettably there is currently no comprehensive scientific study available to support an assumption, so a consensus approach must be used. The current consensus among scholars (Northern Arizona University), researchers (Ecological Restoration Institute), and foresters (National Forest Service), is that the percentage of the forest that requires restorative thinning is somewhere within the 50% to 75% range.

When sustainability is involved, it is always a good idea to err on the conservative side, so Arizona Forest Restoration Products has retained the value of 50% for its sustainability analysis.

 

Volume of wood harvested during restorative thinning

 

More data exists to make this assumption, based on recent restorative prescriptive treatments conducted in the Flagstaff area. During these treatments the volume of wood harvested per acre has fluctuated between numbers as low as 6 to 7 ccf per acre, and as high as 14 to 16 ccf per acre.

Again, when sustainability is involved, it is always a good idea to err on the conservative side, so Arizona Forest Restoration Products has retained the value of 8 ccf per acre for its sustainability analysis.

 

Step #2: Identifying the existing Backlog

Very solid and undisputed data exist to establish the existing backlog.

Based on the Resource Bulletin RMRS-RB-2: "Arizona’s Forest Resources, 1999" published by the Rocky Mountain Research Station of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, there is:

Based on the conservative assumptions that only 50% of the forest need thinning and that only 8 ccf are harvested per acre during thinning operations:

Step #3: Identifying the annual growth

Very solid and undisputed data exist to establish the annual growth.

Based on the Resource Bulletin RMRS-RB-2: "Arizona’s Forest Resources, 1999" published by the Rocky Mountain Research Station of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service there is:

Based on this data, there is a conservative average annual growth of 0.35 ccf per acre across the state:

Step #4: Compounding the existing backlog with the annual growth

Based on the data developed so far:

One immediate observation is that the maximum annual consumption of 258,000 ccf of Arizona Forest Restoration Products (See "Wood Usage") represents less than the current annual growth alone, on the acreage requiring thinning alone.

Step #5: applying the utilization

However, other users' utilization must be acknowledged and the sustainability analysis must be completed by applying the utilization to the existing backlog and the annual growth over the long term.

The long term is defined in this analysis as the projected life of the oriented strand board (OSB) production plant (20 years) and as the laps of time required for a treated acre to require a new treatment after re-growth (20 to 30 years).

A simple mathematical model shows that after 20 years, at the end of life of the OSB plant and without even accounting for re-growth in the areas thinned, Arizona Forest Restoration Products will have absorbed only about half of the current backlog of over 11 million ccf. Over 6 million ccf of backlog will not have been touched.

The model also shows that throughout the life of the OSB plant, Arizona Forest Restoration Products will have consumed typically only around 2 to 4% of the annual ccf balance:

Step #6: reading objectively the data to see if sustainability is insured

Using the most conservative assumptions that only 50% of the Arizona ponderosa pine forest requires thinning and that thinning operations harvest only 8 ccf per acre, and without even accounting for re-growth in the areas thinned, the rational calculation of sustainability utilizing the scientific model demonstrates that:

1) Arizona Forest Restoration Products' utilization is sustainable because:

● After 20 years, at the end of life of the OSB plant, Arizona Forest Restoration Products will have absorbed less than half of the currently existing backlog of over 11 million ccf (1.1 billion cf³) of Northern Arizona non-reserved pole timber ponderosa pine;

2) Arizona Forest Restoration Products' utilization is appropriately sized because:

●  Arizona Forest Restoration Products' annual consumption represents typically only around 2% to 4% of the annual available wood balance.

 

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